Tropical weather outlook

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An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located roughly 1000 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.

This feature remains fairly disorganized due to unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. This wave is moving westward at 15-20mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the WNW.

As 96L approaches, the eastern/northeastern Caribbean Sea over the next five days (late this weekend into early next week) upper-level winds may become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or storm. There are still some obstacles that lay ahead of this feature and any development may be slow.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the area a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next five days.

After five days, the track and intensity are fairly uncertain with a large scale trough along the US east coast and interaction of the system with the Caribbean Islands it is unclear in what form 96L will be by the middle of next week.

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